Threat to over 2,700 buildings, hydroelectric projects in Kashmir from five glacial lakes

A recent scientific study has raised serious concerns over the vulnerability of hundreds of households in Kashmir to Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), warning that at least five high-risk glacial lakes could potentially impact more than 2,700 buildings, hydroelectric projects and infrastructure in the downstream areas in the Ganderbal, Shopian and Kulgam districts.

This was stated in the J&K Assembly on Tuesday by the minister for disaster management, relief and rehabilitation in reply to a question tabled by Tanvir Sadiq (National Conference).

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The Minister said the study, conducted by researchers from the Department of Geoinformatics at the University of Kashmir and published in the Journal of Glaciology, identifies five lakes — Bramsar, Chirsar, Nundkol, Gangabal and Bhagsar — as falling under the “very high susceptibility” category. Together, these lakes pose a threat to 2,704 buildings, around 15 major bridges, road infrastructure and even a hydropower project located downstream.
While researchers clarified that “high susceptibility” does not mean an imminent breach or failure, they stressed that these lakes could become dangerous if specific triggering conditions arise, making them more prone to sudden outburst floods compared to others.
The findings mark one of the most detailed assessments of GLOF risk in the Kashmir Himalaya, where 155 glacial lakes were analysed using hydro-geomorphic indicators such as expansion rate, dam stability and surrounding terrain conditions. The study provides a crucial baseline for both policymakers and disaster management agencies to prepare for potential future hazards.

However, scientists caution that accurately predicting the scale and timing of such floods remains a challenge due to lack of reliable data on glacial lake volumes. “Precise estimation of flood magnitude, velocity and warning time requires bathymetric measurements, which are currently unavailable for most Himalayan lakes,” the study notes.
The Minister said that in a significant step forward, the University of Kashmir has procured a high-precision Real-Time Kinematic (RTK)-enabled robotic echo-sounding boat with support from the Ministry of Earth Sciences. Using this technology, detailed depth surveys of vulnerable glacial lakes in the western Himalaya are planned for 2026. These surveys are expected to generate critical data for hydrodynamic modelling and more accurate risk assessments.

Experts emphasise that the threat is not just theoretical. The downstream footprint of these lakes includes densely inhabited zones and key infrastructure, making early preparedness essential. The study recommends continuous monitoring through remote sensing and field assessments, installation of early-warning systems, and development of eco-sensitive zoning in vulnerable areas.

Work is already underway to design GLOF-specific early-warning systems tailored for mountainous regions. These systems aim to integrate satellite monitoring, on-ground sensors and near real-time communication networks to ensure timely alerts.
However, researchers underline that translating these efforts into fully operational systems will require sustained funding, institutional backing and coordination among government agencies and local communities.

With climate change accelerating glacial dynamics across the Himalayas, the study underscores the urgency of proactive planning. Strengthening early-warning mechanisms and community preparedness, it notes, will be key to safeguarding lives and infrastructure in Kashmir’s vulnerable mountain regions.